The Wall Street Journal reports one of the most pernicious ideas I have heard of late:

Massachusetts legislators, demonstrating a growing resentment against the wealth of elite universities in tight economic times, are studying a plan to levy a 2.5% annual tax on the portion of college endowments that exceed $1 billion.

The effort takes aim at one of the primary economic engines of the state, which is home to nine universities with endowments that surpass the $1 billion level, led by Harvard University's $35 billion cache, the nation's largest....

Supporters said the proposal would raise $1.4 billion a year. Based on the most recent size of Harvard's endowment, the university would have to shell out more than $840 million annually.

If this were to pass, here is what I would consider:

1. Instead of expanding the university into Alston, Harvard could create a second campus in another state. Call it Harvard South. (Put it in a better climate than Boston, and I would be one of the first faculty to volunteer for the move.)

2. Transfer much of the endowment to Harvard South. Support Harvard North by slowly selling off land in Massachusetts.

3. Eventually, make Harvard South the main campus, and Harvard North the satellite. If Massachusetts state lawmakers remain hostile, close Harvard North down entirely.

I have often wondered what the efficient scale of a university is and, in particular, whether it would be better to create a second Harvard with the university's wealth than to expand the first one. Maybe the Massachusetts state legislature will give the powers-that-be at Harvard an incentive to consider more radical expansion plans.

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Published 2 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 2 months ago
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Paul Krugman thinks all of the fuss about the gas tax holiday has become a bit hysterical. He agrees that the policy is a bad idea, but it is no big deal, so let's not focus on it.

Paul is right that the issue is, quantitatively, small potatoes, but I am nonetheless pleased to see it get so much attention. This issue is like the canary in the coal mine: No one really cares about the canary, but its condition tells us about deeper problems that lie below.

Many economic issues (e.g., health care, corporate taxation, the trade deficit) are vastly complicated, with experts holding a variety of opinions. When candidates disagree, it simply means that each is siding with a different set of experts, and it is hard for laymen to figure out which set of experts is right. By contrast, the gas tax holiday is not nearly as complicated, and the experts speak with one voice.

Why, then, are candidates proposing the holiday? I can think of three hypotheses:

Ignorance: They don't know that the consensus of experts is opposed.

Hubris: They know the experts are opposed, but they think they know better.

Mendacity with a dash of condescension: They know the experts are opposed, and they secretly agree, but they think they can win some votes by pulling the wool over the eyes of an ill-informed electorate.

So which of these three hypotheses is right? I don't know, but whichever it is, it says a lot about the character of the candidates.

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Published 2 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 2 months ago
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The AP reports:

Home buying practices adjust to high gas prices

In his hunt for a new home, Demetrius Stroud crunched the numbers to find out that, with gas prices climbing, moving near an Amtrak station is the best thing for his wallet.

Click here for a previous installment.

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Published 16 days ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 16 days ago
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Remember when the University of Chicago used to be the intellectual center of the deregulation movement? No more. A reader alerts me to this news:

Investment banks that obtain Federal Reserve Bank loans during a financial crisis should face much closer regulatory scrutiny, a key economic adviser to Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama said.

Austan Goolsbee, an economics professor at the University of Chicago and one of Sen. Obama's closest advisers on economic issues, said the senator believed strongly in enhanced regulation of any financial institution that has access to the Fed's discount window.

"If you can borrow money from the U.S. taxpayer at a moment of crisis, that is a very sacred insurance policy underwritten by the U.S. taxpayer," said Mr. Goolsbee in an interview last week with Dow Jones Newswires. "We have the right to oversee anyone who is accessing that insurance policy."...

Mr. Goolsbee said that an Obama presidency would ensure that investment banks are regulated as closely as commercial banks.

Here's a question for Austan: Can an investment bank avoid such regulation if it promises never to use the discount window? Or is this insurance-regulation combo a mandate?

This story seems to confirm the fears of Vince Reinhart.

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Published about 1 month ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received about 1 month ago
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Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008.

Over at intrade, the probability of a recession in 2008 has fallen to 25 percent in the latest trade.

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Published 2 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 2 months ago
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One feature of the U.S. tax system is the ability to put some income into tax-deferred savings accounts, such as IRAs and 401k plans. These accounts make the tax system a bit like a consumption tax rather than a true income tax in the sense that some part of saving gets exempt from taxation until it is later withdrawn and consumed. Many economists believe that consumption taxes are better than income taxes because they do not distort the intertemporal margin between consumption today and consumption in the future. Many financial advisers encourage people to put as much into these accounts as they can.

I was surprised to see that Senator Obama has, for some reason, decided not to use this opportunity. His recently released tax returns show significant Schedule C income from book royalties (about half a million dollars in the most recent year). I am not a tax accountant, but I believe he could have put a substantial part of these earnings ($44,000) into a SEP-IRA and deferred taxes on it until withdrawal. Line 28 on his tax return, however, is completely blank.

Why? I don't know. Maybe he is getting bad tax advice. Or maybe he is expecting vastly higher tax rates in the future when the accumulated savings will need to be withdrawn and taxed. As Obama economic adviser Austan Goolsbee has written, "Future increases in tax rates potentially threaten to significantly reduce the value of your retirement savings and may even mean that you should not save in 401(k) accounts at all."

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Published 3 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 3 months ago
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The CBO gives its analysis of various forms of fiscal stimulus.

Some of the proposals on the table strike me as particularly odd. For example: a temporary increase in food stamp benefits.

In standard macroeconomic theory, the business cycle is symmetric. That is, stimulating an economy that is suffering from insufficient aggregate demand should be the opposite of cooling off an overheated economy to reduce inflationary pressures. Would anyone seriously propose a temporary cut in food stamp benefits in an overheated economy? I don't think so. Food stamps seem the wrong tool to address the business cycle.

By contrast, the first line of defense against short-run economic fluctuations--monetary policy--is applied symmetrically. You cut money growth and raise interest rates in an overheated economy, and you increase money growth and lower interest rates in a lackluster one.

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Published 5 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 5 months ago
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Bloomberg reports:

[Senator McCain] has shown increasing disdain for any economist who questions his policy prescriptions. Earlier this month, he lashed out at critics of his proposal for a summer gas-tax holiday.

"You know the economists?'' McCain said June 12 at Federal Hall, near the New York Stock Exchange. "They're the same ones that didn't predict this housing crisis we're in. They're the same ones that didn't predict the dot-com meltdown. They're the same ones that didn't predict the inflation that's staring us in the face today.''

Fortunately, Mr McCain's crystal ball foretold all of these events.

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Published 12 days ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 12 days ago
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The AP reports:

High gas prices have driven a Warren County farmer and his sons to hitch a tractor rake to a pair of mules to gather hay from their fields. T.R. Raymond bought Dolly and Molly at the Dixon mule sale last year. Son Danny Raymond trained them and also modified the tractor rake so the mules could pull it.

T.R. Raymond says the mules are slower than a petroleum-powered tractor, but there are benefits.

"This fuel's so high, you can't afford it," he said. "We can feed these mules cheaper than we can buy fuel. That's the truth."

Thanks for Frank Stephensen for the pointer.

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Published about 1 month ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received about 1 month ago
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Any cap-and-trade system for carbon creates a valuable resource: the right to produce carbon. A key question in the design of the system is how those carbon allowances are allocated. Are they given out for free to power companies and other established carbon emitters? Or are they sold at auction so the revenue can be used to reduce government debt, fund public programs, or reduce distortionary taxation? If the allowances are sold, their price resembles a Pigovian tax, which readers of this blog will recognize as the optimal policy response.

In his speech yesterday, Senator McCain gave a nod to selling the carbon allowances:
Over time, an increasing fraction of permits for emissions could be supplied by auction, yielding federal revenues that can be put to good use.
Not bad, but the statement raises several questions. Why over time? Why not immediately? And how high would that fraction become?

Here was Senator Obama on this topic in a debate a few months ago:
I think cap-and-trade system makes more sense. That's why I proposed it because you can be very specific in terms of how we're going to reduce the greenhouse gases by a particular level. Now what you have to do is you have to combine it with a hundred percent auction.

The Pigou Club gives the edge to Obama.

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Published about 1 month ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received about 1 month ago
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A former ec 10 student alerts me to an article proving yet again, as all Pigou Club members know in their hearts, that the demand for public transport depends on the price of gasoline:

T ridership jumps with gas prices

The high cost of gasoline has helped fuel a sharp increase in MBTA riders over the first two months of the year and a decrease in the number and length of traffic jams, according to T officials and traffic specialists.

The number of T trips rose from 27 million in February 2007 to nearly 30 million in February 2008, up more than 11 percent for the month, Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority officials said. The numbers were up about 5 percent for January. Combined, the average increase is 8.3 percent.

The rising MBTA numbers follow a national trend. More Americans rode public transportation last year than at any time in history, according to the American Public Transportation Association, which also cited gas prices as a major factor.

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Published 3 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 3 months ago
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Question: How does the tax burden the middle class faces today compare to the tax burden the middle class has faced historically?

Answer: Click here and scroll down to see the chart. (Don't believe it? Check out the data source yourself.)

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Published 4 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 4 months ago
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An open question in my mind is whether Barack Obama is going to align himself with the economic centrists in the Democratic party or with the populists on the far left of the party. A key litmus test is trade, and so far it does not look good.

Here is Barack Obama yesterday:

we know that the status quo in Washington just won't do. Not this time. Not this year. We can't keep playing the same Washington game with the same Washington players and expect a different result – because it's a game that ordinary Americans are losing....

It's a game where trade deals like NAFTA ship jobs overseas and force parents to compete with their teenagers to work for minimum wage at Wal-Mart. That's what happens when the American worker doesn't have a voice at the negotiating table, when leaders change their positions on trade with the politics of the moment, and that's why we need a President who will listen to Main Street – not just Wall Street; a President who will stand with workers not just when it's easy, but when it's hard.

By contrast, here is Larry Summers on the issue, expressing a view closer to that held by most economists:
I think the decision to support NAFTA was a crucial one because it was really a watershed as to whether America was going to stand for larger markets, was going to stand for forward defense of our interests by trying to have a more integrated global economy [in] which countries were growing. So [a] watershed in our relations with Mexico and establishing a real partnership with a country with whom we had a 2,000-mile border. I think it resulted in a profound change in the internal political dynamics in Mexico in favor of the progressive forces that believed in the market and friendship with the United States as opposed to the forces that believed more in socialism and opposition to the United States. And NAFTA didn't cost the United States a penny. It contributed to the strength of our economy both because of more exports and because imports helped to reduce inflation. It didn't cost the budget anything. It was a very worthwhile investment for our country.

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Published 4 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 4 months ago
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From the market at Intrade, here are the probabilities as of Sunday morning:

P(Obama) = 0.41
P(McCain) = 0.34
P(Clinton) = 0.24

2/11 Monday morning update:

P(Obama) = 0.46
P(McCain) = 0.33
P(Clinton) = 0.21

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Published 4 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 4 months ago
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NY Times columnist David Brooks writes:
One of the best pieces of career advice I ever got is: Interview three people every day. If you try to write about politics without interviewing policy makers, you’ll wind up spewing all sorts of nonsense.
Brooks was not talking about economists in particular, but this piece of wisdom can be taken as a critique of much of the economics profession. Many economists who write about policy rarely, if ever, encounter actual policymakers. Instead, they prefer to sit in the comfort of their ivory tower offices. (I know I do.)

I wonder how different the economics profession would be if economists were expected to do a year of service outside of academia or, at the very least, if hiring committees rewarded a year of real-world experience as the equivalent of, say, a couple of academic publications. My conjecture is that the profession would be less creative but more useful.

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Published 6 months ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 6 months ago
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A former ec 10 student alerts me to evidence that the stimulus package appears to be working:

An unforeseen and surprising beneficiary of the Economic Stimulus Plan, a plan that George Bush contends will "boost our economy and encourage job creation," has surfaced this week. An independent market-research firm, AIMRCo (Adult Internet Market Research Company), has discovered that many websites focused on adult or erotic material have experienced an upswing in sales in the recent weeks since checks have appeared in millions of Americans' mailboxes across the country.

According to Kirk Mishkin, Head Research Consultant for AIMRCo, "Many of the sites we surveyed have reported 20-30% growth in membership rates since mid-May when the checks were first sent out, and typically the summer is a slow period for this market."

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Published 5 days ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 5 days ago
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In my idyllic suburban hometown of Wellesley, Massachusetts, the police shut down a brothel a few days ago. According to the Wellesley Townsman, one of those arrested for running the business was a man named William Eastwick.

The paper also notes that six months ago the Wellesley police shut down a similar operation nearby. That police action was based on a tip from the same William Eastwick. Oddly, when referring to the Eastwick tip, the town paper says "it is unclear why he did that."

His motive seems clear to me: Like any businessman, Mr Eastwick prefers to have fewer competitors. Some businessmen lobby Congress for trade restrictions. Others alert the police to the brothel down the block. And when using the power of the state to thwart competition, they can both pretend to be acting in the public interest.

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Published 6 days ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 6 days ago
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George Will hits the nail on the head:

Two-thirds of doctoral candidates in science and engineering in U.S. universities are foreign-born. But only 140,000 employment-based green cards are available annually, and 1 million educated professionals are waiting -- often five or more years -- for cards. Congress could quickly add a zero to the number available, thereby boosting the U.S. economy....

Barack Obama and other Democrats are theatrically indignant about U.S. companies that locate operations outside the country. But one reason Microsoft opened a software development center in Vancouver is that Canadian immigration laws allow Microsoft to recruit skilled people it could not retain under U.S. immigration restrictions. Mr. Change We Can Believe In is not advocating the simple change -- that added zero -- and neither is Mr. Straight Talk.

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Published 12 days ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 12 days ago
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From J.T. Young. Note: These numbers, originally from CBO, include all federal taxes.

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Published 18 days ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 18 days ago
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My friend and former student Jason Furman has joined the Obama campaign as Director of Economic Policy.

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Published 29 days ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received 29 days ago
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Published about 1 month ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received about 1 month ago
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Here is an intriguing graph I ran across recently. The blue line is FXY, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the yen. The red line is the S&P 500 index. Over the past year, the two time-series look like mirror images of each other. That is, holding yen seems to hedge U.S. stock-market risk.

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Published about 1 month ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received about 1 month ago
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Vince says the Bear Sterns intervention will haunt the Fed:
The world has changed because of a few snap decisions made one weekend in March. We do not yet have an adequate understanding of what happened and why. But we can be sure that the Fed's action will be used to argue for more spending and more regulation.

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Published about 1 month ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received about 1 month ago
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That's the number of visits this blog has had since it started up a little more than two years ago. Thank you all for coming.

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Published about 1 month ago from Greg Mankiw on Greg Mankiw's Blog Received about 1 month ago
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A friend at the White House emails me about the farm bill now being considered by Congress. An excerpt from the email:

A few of us have been debating the question “Which is the most important reason for the President’s veto of this bill?” Candidates include:

Too much spending: The bill increases spending by almost $20 billion over the next ten years, at a time when net farm income is at an all-time high. Much of this additional spending is disguised by budget gimmicks that take advantage of formal scoring rules to hide real spending increases.

New sugar program: The bill would make the government buy sugar for 2X the world price, store it, then resell it at about an 80% loss to the taxpayer. Sugar sells for about 11¢/lb on the world market. The US government would have to buy sugar for about 22¢/lb, store it, and then auction off the excess to ethanol plants. We estimate that such an auction would net the government about 4¢/lb. In addition, this new provision would require the government to guarantee that domestic sugar producers get 85 percent of the domestic sugar market.

Subsidies for rich farmers: Farmers would be eligible for government subsidy payments if their incomes were as high as $1.5 million if married, and up to $750,000 if single. We had a big fight with Congress last year over whether families with income of 3 times the poverty level should receive taxpayer-subsidized health insurance. This bill would subsidize amarried farming couple with income more than 107 times the poverty level (which is $14,000 for a couple). Put another way, such a couple would be in the top 0.2% of the income distribution. You would be subsidizing their business with your income taxes.

Getting the best of both worlds: “Beneficial interest” is a provision of current law which allows you to lock in a government subsidy payment when the market price for your good is low, and then hold the actual good and sell it when the market price is high. You thus get the best of both worlds – subsidy payments as if crop prices were low, but profits from selling your good at a higher price. The President prop